Friday, October 25, 2013
The statement reads in whole:
The odds of transmission to a US man through unprotected vaginal intercourse is about 1 in 2000 if the person they are having sex with has full blown AIDS. It is about 1 in 1000 for the female (Both without any contraception). If you factor in the actual odds of a US heterosexual having sexual relations with someone with AIDS the odds go into the 1 in multi millions.
Even with the CDCs own numbers of 28% of HIV positive US population are heterosexual, of the 305,000 that have HIV in the US that is only 85,596 people. (In my opinion, even that number is off as the CDC admits they report men who sleep with men as heterosexual if that is how they self identify, but we can go with their numbers) multiply that by the odds of a female having HIV (51% of the population by most numbers) and you are at 43,653 in the US. Seeing as the current US population is 311,800,000, Your odds of interaction with an HIV infected female is 1 in 7,142. Multiply that by the odds of transmission when having unprotected vaginal intercourse with someone with full blown AIDS of 1 in 2000 and you are at 1 in 14,285,387. That is if every single HIV person is still sexually active and not telling their partner. I would hope and expect that is not the case. At worst I would estimate/hope at least 50% are not sexually active with a non infected partner. That puts your odds at 1 in 28,570,774. As I said, Not impossible but highly unlikely.
Even if we cut out 50% of the population for possible math error that's still over 1 in 14,000,000. I have never said "Never" or it was "Impossible" I said highly unlikely and virtually impossible. I think even a 1 in 14 MILLION chance fits that criteria.
As for the history of AIDS, I never claimed to be an AIDS historian. I was asked a question on a radio show. My origional assumptions came from the well known AIDS book "And the band played on" that tracked the modern US outbreak down to Gayton Dugas. No one knows the true "world Patient 0". For a long time it was thought to be Gaton Dugas (An airline steward and prolific homosexual) it was later found to be possibly someone from the 1920's.
No one knows how SIV jumped from simians to humans and transformed into HIV for the true "patient 0" but the ways of transmission are well known. While none can be ruled out, Oral transmission is now thought to be all but impossible, I doubt someone was sharing needles with a monkey or got a blood transfusion from a monkey (but I cant say its impossible so I will still say its possible), what's left?
The CDC does not make any definitive claim as they do not know for sure who it was or how definitely it happened. If they (nor you) can say with certainty who "patient 0" was or how it happened definitively then the door is open for all possibilities.
Now, if you can find fault with my math or the CDC/WHO numbers or you have some definitive new proof of some new discovery as to the history of AIDS I stand ready to correct myself and admit I was wrong. Are you?
Yours in service,
Sen. Stacey Campfield
Posted by Kevin Maloney at 11:24 AM